Tale of the Tape - Oregon State Beavers vs. the Oregon Ducks

Seems most people think that the Ducks are going to win the Civil War. Vegas has us as 10 point underdogs. Every local poll has the 60% of the people voting that the Ducks will win. Blah, blah, blah. Is Autzen really worth 10 points?

I was looking at the stats and things look pretty even to me. On offense, we each do things a little different, but the result is basically the same. Lots of yards and points.

Pac-10 Rankings: (From the Pac-10 Release)

OFFENSE

Rushing

OSU - 6th (149.7)
UO - 1st (231.4)

Passing

OSU - 1st (272.5)
UO - 9th (187.5)

Total

OSU - 2nd (422.2)
UO - 3rd (418.8)

Scoring

OSU - 3rd (32.4)
UO - 1st (37.7)


On defense things are surprisingly even as well. The pass defense for the Beavs is a bit scary, but it looks like the Beavs can run on Oregon. Its unlikely the Beavs will hold the Ducks under 100 yards rushing, but it does appear to be a strength again this year.


DEFENSE

Rushing

OSU - 1st (98.5)
UO - 5th (130.6)

Passing

OSU - 6th (242.1)
UO - 2nd (193.4)

Total

OSU - 5th (340.5)
UO - 3rd (324.0)

Scoring

OSU - 4th (22.2)
UO - 5th (22.7)


What will be the difference? Who knows, but the thing the Ducks have a clear advantage over the Beavs is creating turnovers and sacks. The Quacks have double in each of those categories (Sacks 30-15, Opp TOs 24-12). The good news for the Beavs is that the Ducks give the ball up a bunch more as well. In fact, its over twice as often (19-8).

The best hope for the Beavs is to capitalize on turnovers by the Ducks and force them into 3rd down situations (where they are only converting at 36%). Oh, and don't give up the big plays. Either that or just keep scoring all game long like Stanford did.


Come on Beavs! Early Christmas Present!

Civil War Video!

Junior Raimey put together this sweet song for the Civil War: Pasadena Bound ( I Smell Roast Duck )



The video isn't as good, but the song is awesome!

Go Beavs! Beat the Ducks!

Civil War of the Roses!

Two weeks ago, Arizona had to lose twice and USC had to lose once for Oregon St. to have a shot at the Rose Bowl. Two weeks later, the improbable happened and the Civil War for the Roses was set. This is the biggest Civil War ever. Sure, 2000 was big, but the Rose Bowl is the Rose Bowl! I'm not old enough to remember anything before the streak, so anyone who remembers a bigger Civil War, let me know in the comments below!

The Game

I'm a believer that in the Civil War, anything can happen. Home field means something, but not everything. After that, its just two teams that REALLY want to win.

What is the formula for beating the Ducks? Here are my options:

* Outscore them (i.e. Stanford)

OR

* Don't let them get any big plays (Boise St.) and contain them on offense

OR

* Hope for an implosion on offense and don't let their defense win the game. (Purdue, Arizona, Boise St.)


Of course, the Beavers also need to do at least 3 out of 4 of these:

* Get TDs not FGs

* Limit the penalties

* No turnovers

* Force a few turnovers


What do you think? How do the Beavs win the Civil War?

Wazzu Game and Rose Bowl Possibilities

The big news after last weekend's amazing run of results (USC, Arizona losing) the Beavers have a very real possibility of making the Rose Bowl. Of course, we have to beat Oregon at Autzen to make it happen. Not an easy feat. How cool would it be to have the Civil War be for the Rose Bowl!

In case you haven't seen it, here's how the Beavs get into the Rose Bowl:

1. Beat Wazzu (Listen to the game at 2:00 pm on the Beaver Sports Radio Network)

2. Oregon or USC beats Arizona

3. Beat Oregon

That's it. So if Oregon beats Arizona today (5:00 pm, ABC) and the Beavers beat Washington State, then the Civil War is a one game playoff for the Rose Bowl. That would rock.


Here are some of the other Rose Bowl scenarios for the other Pac-10 teams still with a shot:

Oregon

* Beat Arizona

* Beat OSU


Arizona

* Beat Oregon

* Beat USC

* Beat ASU

From: Saturday could help decide USC's Rose replacement - Sporting News

Arizona, though, would take control of the league with a victory. Head-to-head victories over Stanford, Oregon State and Oregon would give the Wildcats a shot to go to the Rose Bowl if they win out. Arizona finishes with road games against Arizona State and USC.

Stanford

From: Stanford's Rose Bowl possibilities - SF Examiner

* Stanford must beat Cal.

* Arizona must beat Oregon in Tucson.

* Oregon must beat Oregon State in the Civil War.

* Arizona must lose again to either Arizona State or USC, both games will be played on the road.

The result of the above would leave Stanford tied with Oregon with two losses in the Pac-10. Tie goes to the winner.


So that's it. If I missed anything, let me know.

First things first, the Beavers need to beat the Cougars at 2pm today. Then everything else can continue to fall into place.

Go Beavs!

Last Tailgate Of The Season!

Its Dad's Weekend, Senior Day, and a rivalry game against the Huskies. But its also the last chance to tailgate!

Want to chat? Find me and other Beavs on twitter during the game! Just search for the #gobeavs hashtag and we'll find you!

Here's the live tweets right now!

Follow The Beavers On Twitter at #gobeavs

Go Beavs! Beat the Dawgs!

OSU Women's Soccer Wins Their First NCAA Tournament Game Ever

Great game last night by the OSU Women's Soccer team! They beat Ohio State to advance to the next round of the NCAA tournament. It was nearly total domination by the Beavers as they score all of the goals in the game. Unfortunately, one of the goals was an own goal by a Beaver defender.

We had a little watching party at my house, and I haven't seen a ton of games this year but it was a very impressive showing by the Beavs. The goals were legit and the midfield domination was legit. And this was against a team that had only allow 10 goals all season!

Great job ladies and good luck against Florida on Sunday!

Cal Postgame: Canfield, Syd'Quan, Playing On The Road, and Rankings

Great win last night for the Beavers. For some reason, the team is playing really well on the road. Its actually great to see and I think it indicates a step forward for our program. Now we just need to get the fire back for home games. Fans: can we help?


What I Learned:

* Sean Canfield is a very good QB.

Take a look at his numbers:

PASSING         GP-GS   Effic   Cmp-Att-Int   Pct   Yards    TD   Long   Avg/G 
Canfield, Sean   9-9    144.2   217-312-5   69.6   2381   13   87   264.6

He's gotten better at the long ball, reduced his sackability, and improved his decision making. That combined with his physical tools makes him perhaps the best QB that OSU has every had. Bold statement? OK, well he is on track to have the greatest all-around single season a QB has had in the modern era. Considering the QBs that have come through here recently, that's not easy to do.

What do you think? Will Sean leave OSU as the best QB we've seen, or am I drinking too much orange kool-aid?

* Syd'Quan Thompson is freaking awesome

He was EVERYWHERE last night. Stopping the run, breaking up passes, making amazing recoveries to stop broken plays, and even tackling James for a loss on a Fly Sweep.

I'm glad we don't have to play that dude again this year.


On The Road

We have played excellent on the road this year. I think its a hallmark of our growth as a program and indicates the talent level and maturity of the players is rising.

Think about it: our worst road game was USC. And we almost beat them. Wow.


Rankings

I asked the question on twitter last night: "Should the Beavs be ranked?"



Here are the responses I got:

jackaninny: @JasonOSUBeavers #19 ND & #20 Oklahoma and of course #23 Cal all lose - Beavs above them all at #22 #gobeavs

OSUBeaverFan: @JasonOSUBeavers Not yet. more work to do. Bring on the Huskies. #gobeavs

LawTheo: RT @JasonOSUBeavers Should the Beavs be ranked? #gobeavs ~Abso-friggin-lutely! We only lose to ranked teams,Ranked OU and ND lose. Beavs #24

harrisja: Nah...but we'll get votes/ RT @JasonOSUBeavers: Should the Beavs be ranked? #gobeavs

MsRoseanna: @JasonOSUBeavers RT Should the Beavs be ranked? Yes & before now. But it works to OS advantage to sneak up by performance & not perception

tswcivic: @JasonOSUBeavers 24th

I think if Cal was ranked #20 somehow, we should probably be in there. Of course, it doesn't matter, but it is a measure of the level of respect around the country.

Looks like in the AP Poll we ended up #26 and in the USA Today Poll we were #28.

What do you think? Should the Beavers be ranked? Does it matter?


Go Beavs!

UCLA Game Thoughts - Mistakes, Penalties, and Waking Up Just in Time

Quick thoughts on the UCLA game.

I, like most of the fans in Reser, felt that the second half was a mere formality on our way to an easy win over the Bruins. Unfortunately, it felt like the players and coaches had the same attitude.

Sure we moved the ball and racked up the yards. But we lacked a killer instinct until that last 2 minute drive to win the game. The defense was playing prevent at the end and UCLA found that their QB Prince actually can complete passes when players are open.

But, really, the season long theme of mistakes continues...

* The game wouldn't have been close if we didn't have 12 men on the field in our punt return with 3 minutes left that gave them the ball back.

* The false starts are getting a bit ridiculous. It feels like we average at least 3 a game.

* We couldn't decide if we wanted to go for it or kick a FG early in the second half. Turns out we were faking the FG. But it was 2 seconds after the play clock expired.

* The timing was off between Canfield and the receivers. And some dropped balls that really killed our drives.

* Our pass defense seems like they are covering and tackling well, but no sacks at key times and no plays on the ball gave them major pass plays of 40-50 yards multiple times in the 4th quarter.


While each of the mistakes were fairly mild at the time, they added up to another close game at home. We were overlooking UCLA a little bit. Or maybe just relaxed a bit after the flurry at the end of the 2nd half. Ultimately, it felt like we were sleepwalking through the second half.

Since we play better on the road, I expect a good showing next week. But I am concerned for the UW game. Home games have just been too close and too relaxed. And its bit us twice this year already.

A win is a win. I'm happy we pulled it out.

Go Beavs!

Near Miss At USC Makes The Rest Of The Season Very Interesting

It wasn't a pretty game for the most part, but OSU was one 3rd down stop away from having a shot to win the game at the end. With all the practice they have had this season in coming from behind, I'd like to think they had a better than average chance of scoring.

Everyone was saying that the Beavers would need to play a perfect game to win. I don't think that is case. The Beavs had 9 penalties, special teams mistakes, and an early turnover and still were in it until the end. Eliminate just one of those issues and I think the Beavers win.

No fumble in the first half? That changes the game.

No punt return for a touchdown? That changes the game.

Eliminate the penalties in the red zone and score a TD or two in the first half? That changes the game.

The interception that wasn't an interception because of a penalty? They scored after that. If we get that INT then the whole game changes. ( Anyone else notice the flag was thrown after the interception? Hmmm... Yea, I know, sour grapes. )

---

The offense is now looking really good. Take a look at the stats:

Canfield - 30/43, 329 yds, 3 tds, 0 ints
Jaquizz - 20 car, 113 yds, 1 td (in 3/4 of a game)
Halahuni - 9 rec, 127 yds
Adeniji - 5 rec, 81 yds, 1 td
James - 98 yds rec/rush

I think we can beat everyone on our schedule with that offense. Its more dynamic than earlier in the year and can clearly put up major points against one of the best defenses in the nation.

The defense is still a bit pedestrian. I love the secondary coming together and getting two huge interceptions. I think the linebackers are pretty good. But without any sacks, its just so hard to shut a team down. The defense is average right now. Average is OK, but if we had the same defense as last year we have a better record. Simple as that.

The defense is young/new and I've seen a lot of improvement already. But I'd like to see some more heading into the stretch.

---

Overall, its about encouraging as a loss can be. I have a feeling we can beat anyone remaining on our schedule. I don't know if we will, but I'm much more encouraged about the rest of the season. I'd really like to see us with only two Pac-10 losses heading into the Civil War.


* Cliff has some good video on his blog

* The Oregonian has a nice story from Paul Buker and a good photo slide show

* Some great quotes from Pete Carroll and Taylor Mays (the guy who facemasked James Rodgers in the end zone on a bush play)

"I really think they're such a good team," Carroll said. "[Oregon State coach] Mike [Riley] did a great job of adjusting. He was different in the first half than he was in the second half."

Mays, who described Oregon State as "the best offense" USC has faced this season...

* Buker has that quote in full:

USC safety Taylor Mays, who probably drew the ire of many OSU fans when he tore James Rodgers' helmet off after a Rodgers' score:

"We knew they were going to be good and explosive. We were aware and prepared for that. They spread us out and picked away. They found a weakness in our defense. It was frustrating. ... they are probably the most explosive offense we have played. ... with Quizz and James, it has to be the best offense we have played."

How The Beavers Can Break The 50 Year Streak Against USC

I hope someday that the Beavs are in a place where we are favored in every game we play in regardless of whether its at home or on the road. That's the place the Trojans are at. But sometimes the thrill of victory is just way sweeter when you beat someone you're not supposed to beat. That can make a season. So far we haven't had a win like that this year (although ASU was a nice win).

Can Oregon State break the 50 year streak and finally beat USC at the LA Coliseum? Hey, if Stanford can, we not the Beavs?

Here's why it could happen:

1. Like last year, the Trojans are coming off of a high emotion, non-conference road game in which they won.

2. USC could be looking ahead to the Oregon game a Autzen next week which right now looks like the tougher game.

3. Even though Matt Barkley has been stellar at QB so far, he is still a true freshman. All young QBs have a couple forgettable games. USC is starting to open up their passing game. Maybe Barkley is due for a 4 INT wake up call.

4. The Beavers are starting to gel and hit their stride. The young secondary, WRs, and O-Line is improving and given the added incentive of upsetting USC could play the best game of their season.

5. JaQuizz Rodgers.

6. James Rodgers.

7. Mike Riley and staff always seems to game plan well against the Trojans.

8. USC plays a Pro-style offense that the Beavers defense is well suited to defend as opposed to some version of the spread.

9. The Beavers have been playing good football on the road and have confidence playing on the road and in tough games.


Clearly, both lines need to play very well. Its going to be about taking control of the time of possession on offense and limiting the chances that USC gets to score. An no FGs. The Beavs have to score a TD every time they are close. And they need to win the turnover battle.

Impossible? no. But, yes, they probably need to play a perfect game and hope the Trojans are just a little off of their game.


Man, I hope for a nice surprise at the end of the day today :)

Go Beavs!

What's Up With The Pac-10?

After the Beavs disposed of the Cardinal last weekend with relative ease and UW pulling out a controversial win against Arizona, things are much more interesting in the Pac-10.

Team    Conf.  Pct.  Overall Pct.
Oregon    3-0  1.000  5-1  .833
Stanford   3-1  .750  4-2  .667
USC    2-1  .667  4-1  .800
Oregon State   2-1  .667  4-2  .667
Washington   2-1  .667  3-3  .500
Arizona State   1-1  .500  3-2  .600
Arizona   1-1  .500  3-2  .600
California   0-2  .000  3-2  .600
UCLA    0-2  .000  3-2  .600
Washington State  0-4  .000  1-5  .167

With the pre-season Cal and UCLA had, I challenge anyone to say they would have predicted this 1-9.

Since OSU has a bye this week, we get to sit back and see what happens.

Ted Miller of ESPN has blogged about the importance of this weekend in the Pac-10 - "Desperation and separation in Pac-10 games this weekend"

So what's up with Arizona? They looked great at times against OSU and UW, but let both back into the game at the end and could have been beaten by both (or won both). Are they a contender?

ASU is under the radar like OSU right now. Are they good or not? I don't know.

Can Oregon run the table? They look really strong right now. But who knows if Costa has to continue as the QB.

USC looks vulnerable, but they are clearly still very good. It feels like they might have one more loss in them though.

Stanford could pull it together, but I can't see them as a upper-tier bowl team right now.

Can UW be the surprise of the season? They are right now, but aren't they one Locker injury away from being Wazzu?

Cal and UCLA? I have no idea what they are right now.

OSU? I don't think the defense is as dominant as last season. However, as the season wears on, OSU gets better.

Wazzu? Fogettaboutit.


Basically, I know enough to know what I don't know. And all I know is that this is going to be a very interesting weekend for Pac-10 football.