Oregon State Beavers opponent: Cal Bears

The Beavers have the Cal Bears this weekend in Berkley. And it looks like a tall order to beat this team. They are 5-1 and really should be 6-0 but kind of blew it at the end of last week's game against UCLA. The Beavers are coming off of a bye week which could help. The Beavs have traditionally played well after long breaks winning the last two bowl games and nearly all their games after the bye week last season. Let's take a look.


The Stats

On paper Cal has been dominating teams this season. UCLA was the first team to score over 20 points against Cal. No team has had more than 400 yards of total offense (Arizona had 206). UCLA was helped by some big returns by Maurice Drew to get those 47 points. They have a +2 turnover margin and have yet to have more than 66 penalty yards.

On the offensive side of the ball the Bears have rushed for over 200 yards in all their games except the Arizona game when they got 194. In 4 of their 6 games they averaged over 7 yards per carry. Justin Forsett, who is technically the 2nd string RB, has 738 yards on the season already. They could have two 1000 yard runners fairly easily this season. Fortunately, their passing game has been a little erratic. They have had only 3 games with 200 or more yards and none over 300. Still Joe Ayoob is a 54% passer with a 10/3 TD/INT ratio. Not amazing, but not bad.

Cal 2005 Stats

Player Stats


The Schedule

OK, so they are piling up some big numbers and seem to hold teams pretty well on defense. The only question is, who have they played? Sacramento St., Illinois, and New Mexico State. Not exactly top notch competition. They have also played and beat UW and Arizona. Two of the teams picked to finish at the bottom of the Pac-10. So the only great team they have played is UCLA. And they lost. But they certainly played well enough to win. Hmm, this looks familiar. Let's see...weak schedule followed by a tough road loss where the team came from behind to win. Oh yea, that sounds like WSU. They lost to a team they should have beat at home in Stanford. So let's see if I learned anything from my SATs. Wazzu is to Cal as Stanford is to Oregon State.

Cal 2005 Schedule


The Offense

When I think of Jeff Tedford, I think of QBs and passing. But this season Cal is defined by how great it is running the ball. Marshawn Lynch is flat out scary. He can run people over and his motor never stops running. Justin Forsett is small, quick and a good change of pace. But the reason that Cal is so dominant on the run is their offensive line. When 3 of your top 5 players in the preseason are on the O-line, you're probably in good shape. And that's why they are killing people on the run.

As far as the passing game, I think that it is a bit of a weakness. Joe Ayoob is not the all-world QB that people thought he would be coming out of junior college. He has flat-out missed his receivers at times and has had trouble throwing the long ball at times. He was better in the UCLA game, but he's not perfect yet. In addition, the receivers are very young. None of the starters in the receiving core are older than a sophomore. Desean Jackson is the kid to watch as he is a freshman starter, but he's not a Jason Hill or Derek Hagen type threat yet.

Ayoob doesn't make a lot of mistakes so the key is to not let him gain any confidence by completing a few long passes. Make him and the receivers work had for everything they get. In the mean time, the Beavers have to slow down the run a little. That means some run blitzing and a lot of work from the D-line, LBs, and safety to keep the runners contained. A 7 yard per carry average is a recipe for disaster unless there are a few turnovers to help level the playing field.


The Defense

The 'D' had a lot of turnover in the offseason. However, they recruited a ton of talented JC guys and seem to have plugged the gaps for now. They are at the top or close to the top of the Pac-10 in multiple categories of defense this season. I thought it might be because they are running the ball so well that they have a ton of possession time. But it doesn't seem to be the case. Apparently, they have a good defense.

Their pass defense looks to be up to the task with CB Daymeion Hughes and his 4 interceptions this season to go with Strong Safety Donnie McCleskey who leads the team in tackles (by one over a LB). He had a knee injury last season but is back this season.

The only thing they appear to be lacking in is sacks. They have no one with more than 2 sacks and only 7 total on the season so far. That bodes well for the Beavs passing game and Matt Moore's sanity.


Special Teams

The Special Teams seem to be Cal's biggest weakness. They let UCLA get some major return yardage last week and that basically changed the game. However, they have had two TDs on punt returns already this season. Their punter is not great, but serviceable. Their kicker kind of struggled last year, but seems to be pretty solid going 17/18 this season.


Overall

Every team has weaknesses. Oregon State is good enough on offense to move the ball and score some points on this defense. The question is can the Beavers handle the Cal offense at all? If Joe Ayoob causes the offense to stall enough or the Beavers can keep the big plays down, then they have a chance. The problem is that the big plays for Cal are likely to come in the running game. I expect Cal to win this game. I see enough to have hope for a Beaver victory. But with Cal being at home and the Beavs questionable defense I'll have to go with Cal 37-28. I hope it's closer and I hope the Beavs can pull off the huge win. But this is one where I have to see it to believe it.

Go Beavs! Beat the Bears!