Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Tale of the Tape - Oregon State Beavers vs. the Oregon Ducks

Seems most people think that the Ducks are going to win the Civil War. Vegas has us as 10 point underdogs. Every local poll has the 60% of the people voting that the Ducks will win. Blah, blah, blah. Is Autzen really worth 10 points?

I was looking at the stats and things look pretty even to me. On offense, we each do things a little different, but the result is basically the same. Lots of yards and points.

Pac-10 Rankings: (From the Pac-10 Release)

OFFENSE

Rushing

OSU - 6th (149.7)
UO - 1st (231.4)

Passing

OSU - 1st (272.5)
UO - 9th (187.5)

Total

OSU - 2nd (422.2)
UO - 3rd (418.8)

Scoring

OSU - 3rd (32.4)
UO - 1st (37.7)


On defense things are surprisingly even as well. The pass defense for the Beavs is a bit scary, but it looks like the Beavs can run on Oregon. Its unlikely the Beavs will hold the Ducks under 100 yards rushing, but it does appear to be a strength again this year.


DEFENSE

Rushing

OSU - 1st (98.5)
UO - 5th (130.6)

Passing

OSU - 6th (242.1)
UO - 2nd (193.4)

Total

OSU - 5th (340.5)
UO - 3rd (324.0)

Scoring

OSU - 4th (22.2)
UO - 5th (22.7)


What will be the difference? Who knows, but the thing the Ducks have a clear advantage over the Beavs is creating turnovers and sacks. The Quacks have double in each of those categories (Sacks 30-15, Opp TOs 24-12). The good news for the Beavs is that the Ducks give the ball up a bunch more as well. In fact, its over twice as often (19-8).

The best hope for the Beavs is to capitalize on turnovers by the Ducks and force them into 3rd down situations (where they are only converting at 36%). Oh, and don't give up the big plays. Either that or just keep scoring all game long like Stanford did.


Come on Beavs! Early Christmas Present!

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