Oregon State at Penn St.: Why the Beavers Will Win (Or Lose)

With a relaxing Labor Day weekend to recover from the gut wrenching loss to Stanford, its time to forget the past and look to the future. The future makes me nervous. Penn St. was dominant over Coastal Carolina and its a long trip out to Happy Valley. Can we pull off an LSU type game, but with a win? Or will we continue our east coast blowout streak?

Zombie Nation asked a couple of questions, and here are my answers.

Three reasons OSU will win...

1. Oregon State's run defense. Last season the Beavers run defense allow 899 yards for the entire season. There were a lot of graduations, but the current starters all rotated in heavily last year and are pretty experienced. In addition, senior safety Al Afalava is back for the Penn St. game and he is a big hitter who helps out a ton in the run game.

Oregon State has seen a lot of spread in Oregon, a little in Washington, and Utah over the last couple of years. We know how to defend it and have defended it pretty well. Our defensive speed is good. So the Spread HD can be contained.

If Oregon State can hold Penn St. to around 100-150 yards, then they should be winning the game.

2. Coach Riley and the players thrive on these big games. The Beavers gave LSU all they could handle and should have won the game. Riley has yet to lose a bowl game. They beat #2 Cal away last year and USC the year before to snap their big winning streak. I think the players will be pumped and ready to show the nation their stuff. If they get out to an early lead, then they can win.

3. Forcing turnovers. Last year Oregon State had 24 interceptions and 4 for TDs. They have the secondary back and guys who are ball hawks. After forcing no turnovers against Stanford, turnovers will be a point of emphasis and guys will be stripping and looking for the INT. If OSU has a +2 turnover margin or better, they will beat the Nittany Lions.


Three reasons OSU will lose...

1. Turnovers. In all of the Beavers big losses the last few years, turnovers are the culprit. Interceptions, fumbles, and crazy touchbacks. Cincy killed us on takeaways. Louisville and Boise St. all picked us off at will. If we lose the turnover battle, we lose the game. If we give up 5+ turnovers, then it will get ugly.

2. Its game 2. The Beavers haven't had a great start to the season since 2002. It's kind of a Beaver thing to start slow and finish strong. The Stanford loss might mean its another slow start for the Beavs. We lost some great players last year and we are young. Those young guys have to learn on the job and it takes a few games to get going.

3. The running game. After not being able to establish the run against Stanford (granted we had to pass a ton because we were behind), and with the yards PSU put up last week. It could be a slow death. If Penn St. establishes running dominance early and the Beavers can't run, then it will take a career performance from Lyle Moevao to win. He had 400 yards last week, but he would need zero interceptions and some help from the defense to make that happen. If the Beavers can't run either inside or outside on the fly sweep, they will lose the game.


Score...

Its hard to predict a win on this game. I think our early season woes and young LBs and RBs make it tough to call. They say teams improve most from game 1 to game 2 and we will need it. We did have a much tougher game last week than PSU and the Beavers will be ready to go. Not to mention I still have the bad taste from last week in my mouth.

I'll call a 38-21 Penn St. win. I hope I'm wrong and the game is much closer than that.

Prove me wrong Beavs!



Go Beavers!