Will the Beavers Baseball Team Make the Tournament?

It's been a bit of a frustrating year this year in baseball. Maybe not quite as much so as last year (before the playoff run) but frustrating nonetheless. Its the up and down nature of the thing. Playing well against great teams and bad against bad teams. Losing series to Wazzu and Gonzaga was not good.

All that said, even losing the two games to USC, we're still in it. What do we need to do to get in?

Here's the remaining schedule:

USC
Long Beach State
Pacific
Pacific
Pacific

I'd say we need to win the last game at USC to finish .500 in the Pac-10. Then if we can beat Pacific 2 out of 3 at home, we're probably safe. Although a sweep would be nice, because they don't look all that good. A win against LB State would look very good as well.

I think the NCAA wants the defending champs to make it into the playoffs so if we just do OK down the stretch, we'll probably make it in.


Why has this year been so tough? Clearly, its the pitching and defense. We've never been a much better hitting team than we are this year, but our pitching and defense was a lot better the last 3 years. This year is particularly bad.

Stutes - He's never really been dominating in his career, but he has been OK this season. Very up and down but at least keeps things close most outings.

His 5.56 era is a little misleading. A 1.49 WHIP ((BB+H)/IP) is not great, but good enough to win you some games. 8.2 K/9 is pretty good and helps get out of some jams. A 63% LOB% seems low but since our team rate is around 60% maybe our defense just doesn't have great range. The 4.4 BB/9 is pretty high for me, but this is college. Our team BB/9 is 4.8 and opponents are walking 5.0 per game. Wow. If Stutes gets hot at the end of the year, then he can be an ace. Otherwise, he's a 2 not an ace.

Reyes - Not a good year. 1.68 Whip is very high. 4.6 BB9. Almost a .300 batting average against. Yikes. If he was a rookie, he would not be pitching every week. He was expected to be our ace. Is his stuff still good? I don't know. But he needs to improve next year or he may be out of a job. One indicator that he's kinda getting unlucky is that his LOB% is 48%. Thats the lowest on the team. Maybe the D hasn't been great or he can't pitch with people on base, but when over 1/2 the people who get on base score, thats not good.

Robles - Our best starter all year if you look at his season stats. His ERA is high, but most other numbers show he's been a solid #2. 1.175 WHIP. 7.3 K/9 (anything over 6 is good enough). .181 average against and .226 batting average on balls in play. Another stat, fielding independent pitching is a low 2.89 (Stutes is 5.14, Jorge 7.05, and Peavey 10.16). And he hasn't allowed a HR all year. So that huge 5.61 era is very misleading. His LOB% is a little low too so that proves that his ERA is a bit of a fluke. If he's not hurt he needs to be pitching every weekend.

Peavey and Osich have started this year too, but they are struggling mightily. Peavey would be fine if he could up his K rate a little and get that hit rate below 1 per inning. He gets hit hard when he gets hit (8 HR and 15 2b in 38 IP - thats the same as Stutes in 1/2 the innings). Osich just walks way too many. 9.3 BB/9. Over one per inning. Plus people are hitting .307 off of him.

I say give James Nygren a shot against the big boys. His numbers look pretty good. Only 3.1 BB/9 - best on the team among pitchers who play regularly. K's are a little low at 5.9 K/9 but he has a 63% LOB% and 1.250 whip. Both very good for our team. He's pitched mostly against lesser teams, but given his numbers he deserves a shot to prove himself.


Just a quick note on hitting. Two things surprised me when I looked at the hitting numbers. First, Lonnie Lechelt is having a great year. He's the second best hitting on the team next to Ryan Ortiz. If he could ever talk a walk, he'd be very good.

Second, Joey Wong is not as good of a hitter as I thought. Even with his 5 HRs a .705 OPS (OBA+SLG) is basically a weak hitting SS. He does make up for it by walking a lot and what appears to be clutch hitting. But, I was surprised because my impression was that he was having a pretty good year.

The only criticism I'd have for the lineup recently is that Jordan Lennerton isn't playing more often. He's a good hitter who has pop and is the best defensive 1B on the team. I realize Ortiz needs rest from time to time, but the Moose needs to play!


Here's to beating USC, LB State, and sweeping Pacific!

Go Beavs!