Is the competition in the Pac-10 too good for our Men's Hoops coach?

Recently I linked to a Sporting News article that identified the two worst programs in big time college basketball. One was Northwestern who has NEVER been to the NCAA tournament and the other was Oregon State. I think Northwestern is the clear winner, but its hard to argue against the fact that we haven't been great since about 1990. Most of us have lived through the past, so lets look at the future. Can Jay John get this program over the hump?

From what I have read we may keep Jay for at least another season purely for monetary reasons. Plus, with the addition of C.J. Giles there is a lot of hope for next season.


What I like about Jay John:

* He tells it like it is. As far as I can tell, he is honest to the fans and the players (no first hand knowledge there, but no evidence against it).

* He seems to be a players coach. He has been able to recruit better players over time and keep everyone happy and here.

* He coaches an uptempo game. At least compared to his predecessors McKay and Payne. He preaches playing up tempo is the way to attract high quality players and recruits.

* He's the first coach to take us to postseason since we got really bad. Hey, 2004 was fun even if it was the NIT.

* He looks to Europe to find quality players that we may not have been able to find here. He's clearly trying to find Pac-10 players wherever he can find them.

* I have the feeling that he would be a great coach with great players. Of course who wouldn't I guess.


My concerns about Jay:

* He hasn't recruited a truly big name player. The possible program changing player. Can he do it? I'm not sure I count C.J. Giles or David Lucas because they basically fell into his lap. Not that that is a bad thing.

* I've have questions as to how good he is at game management and X's and O's. I have a feeling he is learning on the job. But he has gotten better and will admit when he made a mistake.

* He may be outclassed in terms of coaching prominence in the Pac-10. This is the one that concerns me most going forward. Lets look at this further.


Coaching in the Pac-10 is Great

There's an article about the quality of the Pac-10 in the Tuscon Citizen that talks about how the Pac-10 is great this year because of the high level of coaches that have come to coach in the league (Gimino: Coaches make Pac-10 best - Tuscon Citizen). The quotes below are pulled from that article.

No question that the level of coaching in the Pac-10 has risen. First, look at the quality of Pac-10 coaches that have been hired over the last 2-3 years. Ben Howland, Herb Sendeck, Dick Bennett/Tony Bennett, and Tim Floyd. All established head coaches with success elsewhere in big time leagues.

"The big thing in the Pac-10 is that when I first came here, it was a case of when there were openings, a lot of times they were filled by assistants from good programs," Olson said.
"Now, we're getting head coaches from good, winning programs."

Then look at some of the existing coaches that have had success for a while: Lute Olsen, Lorenzo Romar, Ben Braun, and even Ernie Kent. Those 8 coaches all have more clout than Jay when walking into a room with a recruit. They have all taken multiple teams to the NCAA tournament and had success recruiting major players. The only one I don't see as really have much of a name is the Stanford coach, Trent Johnson. But he clearly has a huge advantage by way of the university.

"The league is tough right now," Olson said. "And from what I've seen with the recruiting, it is going to continue to be tough."

So Jay John is arguably the least known and one of the least experienced coach in the Pac-10 in terms of head coaching experience. And he coaches at a place with great history but pretty bad recent history. Let's just say the odds aren't in his favor.


The future

So what do we do? I think Coach John is doing an OK job chipping away and getting better slowly but surely. He has had a winning season which is great and was a ton of fun. But now do you need a hoops equivalent of Dennis to get us over the hump? Or do we go the Pat Casey route and stay the course? I would love to see Jay turn it around. And hey, I think if you give Jay 10 years, he will have this program turned around. But is that feasible in Men's Basketball when turnarounds happen instantly elsewhere?

I know what Beaver Nation thinks because they are making their opinions known all over the message boards and airwaves. The vocal ones want Jay out.

I don't know the answer, but I know one thing. If we can't hire a coach with a profile on par with the rest of the high profile coaches in the Pac-10, then I'd rather just keep Jay John and see what happens next season.