Beavers next opponent: UCLA Bruins

Ah UCLA. The traditional underachievers have finally gotten off to a strong start. Maybe the theory about needing a Senior QB in the Pac-10 to win big is true. Drew Olson is certainly leading the team, but he is getting a ton of help from Maurice Drew and a little luck as well. If I remeamber right this is about the time of year that UCLA begins it's yearly slide. Hopefully the Beavers can start that off this week.

The Stats

A cursory look at the stats reveals that they aren't dominating their competition. They are leading their opposition by only 15 yards per game at 431.2 to 416.7. In addition they are giving up a ton of rushing yardage (229.7 per game!). They have given up 330 yards in each of their last two games. This is a great game for the Beavers running game to continue to make strides.

So how the heck are the Briuns winning so many games?

One major reason is that they are scoring a ton more points than their opponents per yard gained on offense. They have 30 rushing and passing TDs where their opposition has only 20 TDs. They are pretty balanced too with 15 rushing and 15 passing TDs. When you throw in Maurice Drew's 3 TDs on punt returns and their 2 fumble returns for touchdowns, they are getting some easy bonus points and scoring a lot period. They have only been held under 40 points only once this season.

Another reason is that they are winning the turnover battle in a major way. They are at +7 on the year. They didn't even have a turnover in the first 3 games of the season. However, they are even on turnovers the last 3 games in the Pac-10 and in each of those games they have had to comeback from deficits in the 4th quarter. Plus, they have had 8 fumbles but only 1 lost fumble. They are prime for some turnovers this week.

Offense

The QB Drew Olson has been stellar this year with his 67% completion rate, 5/1 TD to INT ratio, and 1612 yards passing. Maurice Drew and Chris Markey are holding down the fort at RB with a combine 122.5 ypg average between them. Finally, the recieving core is led by TE Mercedes Lewis with 4 TDs and 368 yards receiving. Every time the Bruins need a big catch it seems like WR Marcus Everett is there making some drive saving grab.

After last week against Cal, one thing that gives Beaver fans hope is that Washington (!) stopped the Bruins running game cold. One week after Oklahoma held them to 83 yards on the ground, the Huskies allowed only 65 yards. Plus, the Bruins offense has only outgained what their defense has allowed in 2 out of 6 games.

If the Beavers can stop Drew and Markey like they stopped Lynch and Forsett last week, they have a better chance to win. UCLA does have Olson and he could kill the Beavs secondary if they are not ready to play. But I'm not sure if those recievers are quite at the level of Hagan (ASU) or Hill (WSU) who absolutely killed our secondary earlier in the year.

Defense

Last year the Bruins were bad at every facet of the defense. This year it seems that only their run defense is bad. It's hard to believe their pass defense got that much better over the course of one season. They do have three new starters so maybe they are that much better. Or maybe it's the fact that they have played Rice, Oklahoma, and Washington already (Rice only passed for 65 yards on 8-17 passing). At least they have only 3 interceptions so far so hopefully that's a good sign for Matt Moore.

The linebackers are strong along with their secondary. Their D-line appears to be the weak spot. They are giving up a rediculous amount of yards on the ground (229.7/g). That must mean the D-line isn't doing it's job. Another area lacking for the Bruins is pressure on the QB. They have only 13 sacks in 6 games. Plus, no one on the team has more than 2 sacks. Hopefully that's another good sign for Matt Moore.

If the Beavs can run again this week, then they can keep it close by keeping the Bruin offense off the field. Hopefully Mike Hass can get back on track this week and that can propel the passing game to be strong this week. Defending the pass is their strength so it could be another tough week for Mike.

Overall

I think the Beavers match up pretty well against the Bruins. With the best punter in the league we should be able to keep the ball away from Drew on punts. Also, if our D plays aggresive like it has for the last 3 halves, then we should be able to slow down their run game. The big wild card will be turnovers. If we can win or at least be even on turnovers, we can win. If we lose the TO battle, we probably lose the game. I think we can win this one, but the Bruins have been so clutch that I think they could find a way to beat us at home. Then again, we have been very clutch this season too. Tough to call. Aw, screw it: 34-31 Beavers. It's time for reality to smack UCLA in the mouth this weekend. I think UCLA is prme for some turnovers and that the Beavs will win the turnover battle. Thus, they win the game.

Go Beavs!