Oregon State's next opponent: Louisville Cardinals

There's no question the Beavers will have an uphill battle this weekend against Louisville. They are ranked 10th or 11th depending on the poll. They averaged almost 50 points per game last season. They went 11-1 with only a loss to Miami to mar their record last season. And they seem to be an "in vogue" choice to crash the BCS party and maybe even compete for a National Championship. Sounds vaguely like LSU last year. So do the Beavers have a chance? Let's take a look.

Offense

Louisville is known for their offense. Who wouldn't after AVERAGING 49.8 points per game. They have an interesting mix of power and finesse that sounds pretty interesting. They use the spread with 0 or 1 back formations as well as a power I formation to pound it down your throat. Reminds me of how I play when I'm playing NCAA 2006. Hmm, maybe I can be a coach...yea, right!

The key is that they have the players that can run both a finesse and power game. Their running back, Michael Bush, is a monster at 6-3, 250. However, he also returned kickoffs last year so he's pretty quick too. Frankly, he is scary. Their offensive line is monstrous and experienced with 3 seniors, 1 junior, and a RS freshman center.

The passing game has been very efficient in the past with former QB
Stefan LeFors passing at a 74% completion rate. They are starting off pretty strong this season with new QB Brian Brohm leading the way. He's a highly touted kid who seems to have picked up where LeFors left off. He is just a Sophomore with only one start under his belt, but he played in every game last season amassing 819 yards and 6 TDs with a 67% completion percentage. So he isn't too green. The receivers don't make things look any easier. They have three senior starters. They lost last year's top receiver, but they look good at WR.

Well, the 'O' looks tough. Kinda reminds me of reviewing BSU last week. The only positive that I could find is that in the first game against Kentucky they only passed for 179 yards and no TDs through the air. Also, they only scored 3 points in the second half. I think that the only hope of slowing things down offensively for the Beavs is stopping the run and hoping the young QB makes a few mistakes. I doubt he's been put in a position to have to throw when it counts. I'd take my chances with him to beat me.

Defense

You don't get to 11-1 without a decent defense. Granted they could probably outscore anyone, but they still held teams to 19.7 ppg. The D-line and linebackers look strong. The secondary is a bit questionable with three new starters. This isn't LSU's or Miami's defense but they are dangerous.

The man to watch is DE Elvis Dumervil. He got 6 six sacks against UK in their first game. Yikes! That may garner a few double-teams. The rest of the line is solid and good sized if not spectacular. The DTs are new starters so that may help out the power run game if they make a few mistakes.

OLB Abe Brown is on the Butkus Award watch list so he's a good one. The other OLB is a senior who started last year and he appears to be solid. The MLB is a sophomore (Matt Sanders) and could be the only question mark as he replaces a really good MLB from last year in Robert McCune.

The secondary has only 1 returning starter from last year. The returner is CB William Gay who started last year. This is the major area of concern for the Cardinals. However, all of the new guys are fast and look the part. Kentucky passed for 278 yards against their new secondary with a few passes over 30 yards. This and special teams seems to be big areas of concern from coach Petrino based on stories I've read.

To me it looks like the Cardinals defense is strong on the outside. They have a lot of new guys up the middle (DTs, MLB, and both safties) so that may be a problem for them. It could mean our inside running game will open up a little. But we'll see. Much of what I've read points to a lack of depth in the defense as well. That's to be expected of a former C-USA team. Of course, now they are in the Big East so they will probably remedy that as the years go on. But if anything, that could mean that we can wear them down if we can consistently move the ball.


My Take

The Beavers have nothing to lose in this game. It seems like the Beavs over-achieve is these "nothing to lose" games. Some examples last year were LSU and USC. So that gives me hope. Also, their defense seems to give up some passing yardage which is great for us. The big question is how will our defense fare against their potent offense? I have a feeling they will be able to run on us. If PSU and BSU can, they probably will. We've been dominant against the run in the past, so that may happen again. If we can stop the run, will our young secondary be able to slow the passing game? Can we create turnovers on defense? Can we avoid committing turnovers on offense?

I don't have the answer to any of those questions. But I'm hopeful. And I've got a good feeling. I bet the guys feel good too after that win. So I'm betting on a good showing by the Beavs. I think the game is a bit more even than Vegas has it listed. Remember, they beat BSU in a bowl last year 44-40 in a comeback win. However, with home field advantage and that huge running back my head says the edge goes to UL for the win. However, my heart says the Beavers have a shot at pulling off the upset. But what good Beavers fan wouldn't say we have a shot at winning any game? GO BEAVS!


Interesting articles on the Cardinals:

SI.com - he Offensive Revolution: THE LOUISVILLE POWER/SPREAD ATTACK

www.UofLSports.com - 2005 Cardinal Football Outlook
www.UofLSports.com - Cardinal Football News

Fox Sports - 2005 PREVIEW: Louisville Cardinals


Few more articles on the game:

Rivals.com - Non-conference tilts mark weekend in Pac-10

The Register-Guard - Cardinals fly into national spotlight

KENTUCKY.COM - Oregon State visits for high noon showdown

Statesman Journal - OSU QB cool under pressure
Statesman Journal - Beavers brace for rough Louisville offense

Corvallis Gazette-Times - Doggett expects better
Corvallis Gazette-Times - Late tape a boon for Butler, OSU

The Arizona Republic - Pac-10 can either put up or . . .

USAToday - Weekend Forecast


Louisville Bloggers

Cards Fan Blog

Before I Get Old