* Football: Another run at a Rose Bowl and another bowl game.
Overall, a pretty good year. Many sports on the rise. And anytime you can make a Rose Bowl run, its a good year. It took me a while to get over that loss though. And the bowl game sure didn't help anything.
So 2010...
Basketball is starting to look up after beating Oregon. But, wow have we lost a lot of non-conference games. I have a feeling we could have used Roberto Nelson.
But, the Pac-10 is way down this year. Anything is possible in this league. We may be able to make a Pac-10 tourney run and make the tournament. Or maybe the NIT. I'm still hopeful. What is it with OSU and slow starts?
Football is going to be VERY interesting this spring. Seems like everyone is coming back next year...except Canfield. We have a lot of talented young QBs, but they are untested. And it seems that new QBs struggle the first season they become starters. Katz has the early lead, but Lalich and Vaz will get plenty of looks.
Now that USC is in flux (although Lane Kiffen scares me because he'll do anything to win. But the program could be in major trouble in 3 years.) and many other teams are not exactly looking super strong, could the Beavs be battling Oregon again for a Rose Bowl berth in December? Oregon has to be considered the favorite right now. USC is a bit of an unknown, but they are probably #2. OSU has to be #3 pre-season, right?
Seems most people think that the Ducks are going to win the Civil War. Vegas has us as 10 point underdogs. Every local poll has the 60% of the people voting that the Ducks will win. Blah, blah, blah. Is Autzen really worth 10 points?
I was looking at the stats and things look pretty even to me. On offense, we each do things a little different, but the result is basically the same. Lots of yards and points.
On defense things are surprisingly even as well. The pass defense for the Beavs is a bit scary, but it looks like the Beavs can run on Oregon. Its unlikely the Beavs will hold the Ducks under 100 yards rushing, but it does appear to be a strength again this year.
DEFENSE
Rushing
OSU - 1st (98.5) UO - 5th (130.6)
Passing
OSU - 6th (242.1) UO - 2nd (193.4)
Total
OSU - 5th (340.5) UO - 3rd (324.0)
Scoring
OSU - 4th (22.2) UO - 5th (22.7)
What will be the difference? Who knows, but the thing the Ducks have a clear advantage over the Beavs is creating turnovers and sacks. The Quacks have double in each of those categories (Sacks 30-15, Opp TOs 24-12). The good news for the Beavs is that the Ducks give the ball up a bunch more as well. In fact, its over twice as often (19-8).
The best hope for the Beavs is to capitalize on turnovers by the Ducks and force them into 3rd down situations (where they are only converting at 36%). Oh, and don't give up the big plays. Either that or just keep scoring all game long like Stanford did.
Two weeks ago, Arizona had to lose twice and USC had to lose once for Oregon St. to have a shot at the Rose Bowl. Two weeks later, the improbable happened and the Civil War for the Roses was set. This is the biggest Civil War ever. Sure, 2000 was big, but the Rose Bowl is the Rose Bowl! I'm not old enough to remember anything before the streak, so anyone who remembers a bigger Civil War, let me know in the comments below!
The Game
I'm a believer that in the Civil War, anything can happen. Home field means something, but not everything. After that, its just two teams that REALLY want to win.
What is the formula for beating the Ducks? Here are my options:
* Outscore them (i.e. Stanford)
OR
* Don't let them get any big plays (Boise St.) and contain them on offense
OR
* Hope for an implosion on offense and don't let their defense win the game. (Purdue, Arizona, Boise St.)
Of course, the Beavers also need to do at least 3 out of 4 of these:
* Get TDs not FGs
* Limit the penalties
* No turnovers
* Force a few turnovers
What do you think? How do the Beavs win the Civil War?
The big news after last weekend's amazing run of results (USC, Arizona losing) the Beavers have a very real possibility of making the Rose Bowl. Of course, we have to beat Oregon at Autzen to make it happen. Not an easy feat. How cool would it be to have the Civil War be for the Rose Bowl!
In case you haven't seen it, here's how the Beavs get into the Rose Bowl:
1. Beat Wazzu (Listen to the game at 2:00 pm on the Beaver Sports Radio Network)
2. Oregon or USC beats Arizona
3. Beat Oregon
That's it. So if Oregon beats Arizona today (5:00 pm, ABC) and the Beavers beat Washington State, then the Civil War is a one game playoff for the Rose Bowl. That would rock.
Here are some of the other Rose Bowl scenarios for the other Pac-10 teams still with a shot:
Arizona, though, would take control of the league with a victory. Head-to-head victories over Stanford, Oregon State and Oregon would give the Wildcats a shot to go to the Rose Bowl if they win out. Arizona finishes with road games against Arizona State and USC.
Great game last night by the OSU Women's Soccer team! They beat Ohio State to advance to the next round of the NCAA tournament. It was nearly total domination by the Beavers as they score all of the goals in the game. Unfortunately, one of the goals was an own goal by a Beaver defender.
We had a little watching party at my house, and I haven't seen a ton of games this year but it was a very impressive showing by the Beavs. The goals were legit and the midfield domination was legit. And this was against a team that had only allow 10 goals all season!
Great job ladies and good luck against Florida on Sunday!
Great win last night for the Beavers. For some reason, the team is playing really well on the road. Its actually great to see and I think it indicates a step forward for our program. Now we just need to get the fire back for home games. Fans: can we help?
PASSING GP-GS Effic Cmp-Att-Int Pct Yards TD Long Avg/G Canfield, Sean 9-9 144.2 217-312-5 69.6 2381 13 87 264.6
He's gotten better at the long ball, reduced his sackability, and improved his decision making. That combined with his physical tools makes him perhaps the best QB that OSU has every had. Bold statement? OK, well he is on track to have the greatest all-around single season a QB has had in the modern era. Considering the QBs that have come through here recently, that's not easy to do.
What do you think? Will Sean leave OSU as the best QB we've seen, or am I drinking too much orange kool-aid?
He was EVERYWHERE last night. Stopping the run, breaking up passes, making amazing recoveries to stop broken plays, and even tackling James for a loss on a Fly Sweep.
I'm glad we don't have to play that dude again this year.
On The Road
We have played excellent on the road this year. I think its a hallmark of our growth as a program and indicates the talent level and maturity of the players is rising.
Think about it: our worst road game was USC. And we almost beat them. Wow.
I think if Cal was ranked #20 somehow, we should probably be in there. Of course, it doesn't matter, but it is a measure of the level of respect around the country.
I, like most of the fans in Reser, felt that the second half was a mere formality on our way to an easy win over the Bruins. Unfortunately, it felt like the players and coaches had the same attitude.
Sure we moved the ball and racked up the yards. But we lacked a killer instinct until that last 2 minute drive to win the game. The defense was playing prevent at the end and UCLA found that their QB Prince actually can complete passes when players are open.
But, really, the season long theme of mistakes continues...
* The game wouldn't have been close if we didn't have 12 men on the field in our punt return with 3 minutes left that gave them the ball back.
* The false starts are getting a bit ridiculous. It feels like we average at least 3 a game.
* We couldn't decide if we wanted to go for it or kick a FG early in the second half. Turns out we were faking the FG. But it was 2 seconds after the play clock expired.
* The timing was off between Canfield and the receivers. And some dropped balls that really killed our drives.
* Our pass defense seems like they are covering and tackling well, but no sacks at key times and no plays on the ball gave them major pass plays of 40-50 yards multiple times in the 4th quarter.
While each of the mistakes were fairly mild at the time, they added up to another close game at home. We were overlooking UCLA a little bit. Or maybe just relaxed a bit after the flurry at the end of the 2nd half. Ultimately, it felt like we were sleepwalking through the second half.
Since we play better on the road, I expect a good showing next week. But I am concerned for the UW game. Home games have just been too close and too relaxed. And its bit us twice this year already.
It wasn't a pretty game for the most part, but OSU was one 3rd down stop away from having a shot to win the game at the end. With all the practice they have had this season in coming from behind, I'd like to think they had a better than average chance of scoring.
Everyone was saying that the Beavers would need to play a perfect game to win. I don't think that is case. The Beavs had 9 penalties, special teams mistakes, and an early turnover and still were in it until the end. Eliminate just one of those issues and I think the Beavers win.
No fumble in the first half? That changes the game.
No punt return for a touchdown? That changes the game.
Eliminate the penalties in the red zone and score a TD or two in the first half? That changes the game.
The interception that wasn't an interception because of a penalty? They scored after that. If we get that INT then the whole game changes. ( Anyone else notice the flag was thrown after the interception? Hmmm... Yea, I know, sour grapes. )
I think we can beat everyone on our schedule with that offense. Its more dynamic than earlier in the year and can clearly put up major points against one of the best defenses in the nation.
The defense is still a bit pedestrian. I love the secondary coming together and getting two huge interceptions. I think the linebackers are pretty good. But without any sacks, its just so hard to shut a team down. The defense is average right now. Average is OK, but if we had the same defense as last year we have a better record. Simple as that.
The defense is young/new and I've seen a lot of improvement already. But I'd like to see some more heading into the stretch.
Overall, its about encouraging as a loss can be. I have a feeling we can beat anyone remaining on our schedule. I don't know if we will, but I'm much more encouraged about the rest of the season. I'd really like to see us with only two Pac-10 losses heading into the Civil War.
"I really think they're such a good team," Carroll said. "[Oregon State coach] Mike [Riley] did a great job of adjusting. He was different in the first half than he was in the second half."
Mays, who described Oregon State as "the best offense" USC has faced this season...
USC safety Taylor Mays, who probably drew the ire of many OSU fans when he tore James Rodgers' helmet off after a Rodgers' score:
"We knew they were going to be good and explosive. We were aware and prepared for that. They spread us out and picked away. They found a weakness in our defense. It was frustrating. ... they are probably the most explosive offense we have played. ... with Quizz and James, it has to be the best offense we have played."
I hope someday that the Beavs are in a place where we are favored in every game we play in regardless of whether its at home or on the road. That's the place the Trojans are at. But sometimes the thrill of victory is just way sweeter when you beat someone you're not supposed to beat. That can make a season. So far we haven't had a win like that this year (although ASU was a nice win).
Can Oregon State break the 50 year streak and finally beat USC at the LA Coliseum? Hey, if Stanford can, we not the Beavs?
Here's why it could happen:
1. Like last year, the Trojans are coming off of a high emotion, non-conference road game in which they won.
2. USC could be looking ahead to the Oregon game a Autzen next week which right now looks like the tougher game.
3. Even though Matt Barkley has been stellar at QB so far, he is still a true freshman. All young QBs have a couple forgettable games. USC is starting to open up their passing game. Maybe Barkley is due for a 4 INT wake up call.
4. The Beavers are starting to gel and hit their stride. The young secondary, WRs, and O-Line is improving and given the added incentive of upsetting USC could play the best game of their season.
5. JaQuizz Rodgers.
6. James Rodgers.
7. Mike Riley and staff always seems to game plan well against the Trojans.
8. USC plays a Pro-style offense that the Beavers defense is well suited to defend as opposed to some version of the spread.
9. The Beavers have been playing good football on the road and have confidence playing on the road and in tough games.
Clearly, both lines need to play very well. Its going to be about taking control of the time of possession on offense and limiting the chances that USC gets to score. An no FGs. The Beavs have to score a TD every time they are close. And they need to win the turnover battle.
Impossible? no. But, yes, they probably need to play a perfect game and hope the Trojans are just a little off of their game.
Man, I hope for a nice surprise at the end of the day today :)
After the Beavs disposed of the Cardinal last weekend with relative ease and UW pulling out a controversial win against Arizona, things are much more interesting in the Pac-10.
Team Conf. Pct. Overall Pct. Oregon 3-0 1.000 5-1 .833 Stanford 3-1 .750 4-2 .667 USC 2-1 .667 4-1 .800 Oregon State 2-1 .667 4-2 .667 Washington 2-1 .667 3-3 .500 Arizona State 1-1 .500 3-2 .600 Arizona 1-1 .500 3-2 .600 California 0-2 .000 3-2 .600 UCLA 0-2 .000 3-2 .600 Washington State 0-4 .000 1-5 .167
With the pre-season Cal and UCLA had, I challenge anyone to say they would have predicted this 1-9.
Since OSU has a bye this week, we get to sit back and see what happens.
So what's up with Arizona? They looked great at times against OSU and UW, but let both back into the game at the end and could have been beaten by both (or won both). Are they a contender?
ASU is under the radar like OSU right now. Are they good or not? I don't know.
Can Oregon run the table? They look really strong right now. But who knows if Costa has to continue as the QB.
USC looks vulnerable, but they are clearly still very good. It feels like they might have one more loss in them though.
Stanford could pull it together, but I can't see them as a upper-tier bowl team right now.
Can UW be the surprise of the season? They are right now, but aren't they one Locker injury away from being Wazzu?
Cal and UCLA? I have no idea what they are right now.
OSU? I don't think the defense is as dominant as last season. However, as the season wears on, OSU gets better.
Wazzu? Fogettaboutit.
Basically, I know enough to know what I don't know. And all I know is that this is going to be a very interesting weekend for Pac-10 football.
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Anytime you can break a 40 year streak in anything, its big. Seems like ASU has been our kryptonite forever, but that was a convincing win.
That's a formula we could use for many teams that are at or near our skill level. Jump on them early, convert in the red zone, force turnovers, win special teams, and stretch the field long from time. I wish there was more consistency from the running game, but I love the long runs.
Against Stanford we have to jump out fast and score touchdowns early. No field goals. If we score TDs those first two drives against Arizona, I think we win. The D against Stanford is gonna be big. Can we force some turnovers? I don't know, but if we aren't getting sacks then we need some turnovers.
Every game is big in college football, but this one is really big considering the opposition coming up. If the Beavs can pull this out, they should be setup nicely for a bowl game at 7-5. A loss means we may need another Cal or Civil War win to get to that level.
What I really want to see is continued improvement. I want the new starters to start making a bigger impact. Maybe more tight end involvement. Maybe a fly sweep from Wheaton or more big catches from Bishop.
Another thing that I think we really need are some game changers. Maybe a long pass for a TD. Or a few turnovers created by the defense. Or a pick 6 from a corner. Or a return for a TD. Something that is unexpected that is a game changer. We haven't had enough of those this year. Last year we had a ton. That's the biggest difference between this year and last year to me.
Here we are again. 2-2. Someday I'd love to see a 3-1 or 4-0 start. The good news is that our 2-2 starts used to include a huge blowout or two (Boise St., Cal, Cincy, etc). Now our 2-2 starts could have just as easily been 3-1 or 4-0 with a few breaks (no interceptions). Of course the UNLV game could have gone the other way too...
Other than a few bad breaks, why are we losing these games that we seemed to pull out last year? I don't pretend to know, but I know what I see.
* We don't do anything great. We're OK at the passing game. OK against the run. OK against the pass. OK in the running game. OK receiving core. OK offensive line. Bad pass rush. We're just average right now. Which isn't bad, unless you make more mistakes than the other team (-2 turnover margin against U of A. 5-0 sacks. Penalties). The good news? When you are already OK to good, its easier to improve a little to see better performance on the field. We have the athletes.
* The last two years we found a play or a player about this point of the season who was almost unstoppable. Fly Sweep, Quizz, Stroughter Punt Returns, and Slade/Victor Sacks. We need to find that player this week. Is it Moevao? Wheaton? More blitzing from the LBs? Something needs to change because we are getting nothing extra. No key turnovers. No key sacks. No long passes or runs. We have to grind everything out on both sides of the ball. Its just too hard to win consistently when all of the other teams in the Pac-10 has improved so much.
The tough part is that now we have to pull out some tough wins (probably upsets) to salvage our season. The thing that gives me hope is that these coaches and players have been here before and they know what it takes. But like the last two games, I hope they don't come up short.
One of the coolest things I have discovered this season is ESPN360. It let me watch the Arizona game last week as well as the USC/UW game. Its like Hulu for sports. The only bummer is that you can only get it with certain internet providers. Luckily Comcast is one (and my work isn't one or I'd never get anything done).
Anyways, the Arizona vs. Iowa game was an interesting game from a scouting perspective. Its hard to know how much of this is Iowa and how much is Arizona, but...
* Arizona's secondary is good. They returned an INT for a TD which was 7 of their 10 points.
* The D-Line looks pretty good too. Good pressure on the Iowa QB.
* The offense needs help. Specifically, the O-Line was beat all day. They couldn't protect and couldn't run block either.
* The QB Scott, who was benched this week, looked very green. Happy feet, not great reads, but had a strong arm and was a decent runner.
* The RB Grigsby didn't have much room to run, but when he got some room he was fast.
Unless the OSU offensive line is ready this week, the offense could struggle again. Could be a low scoring game. Hopefully our defense can come through this week and maybe score or create a few turnovers. That would be huge. An TDs, not FGs.
This loss to Cincinnati feels less like a "sky is falling" loss than we've have the last 5 years. I think back to Boise St. x 2, Cincy '07, Cal early a few years ago, Frenso St., etc and I remember thinking that a bowl game might be tough.
This loss feels like Stanford or Utah of last year. Games we could have won (probably should have won) if the breaks went our way. We are lucky we survived UNLV. But honestly, if we had one of two things happen I think we win that game.
I think we win if the fumble was called a fumble, or if on the next play we don't let them convert that 20 yard pass for the 1st down after the huge loss. And, actually if we got a 3 and out after our failed 4th down conversion, there was plenty of time to score twice with the help of an on-sides kick. But letting them drive the field for 4 minutes killed that possibility.
How painful was that TD at the end of the first half? How about that series on the 6 yard line where we went backwards twice?
The Aftermath
The post-game reaction is pretty wide ranging. Much of the blame either lands on the Offensive Line (no running game between the tackles, 5 sacks), the QB Sean Canfield (5 sacks, strange desperation plays, holding the ball too long), the play calling (nothing down field, too much Rodgers bros), and maybe the D-Line (no sacks). Some even called out everyone and their mother, including the fans. And of course, Canzano wants Moevao.
Beaver fans are clearly reeling. This isn't the post I would have written last night. I was pissed at the refs for that call, pissed at Canfield, the final play calls, the lack of push up front, and even had the thought "what if Moevao was the QB". So I feel you.
Then I remember last year. That started MUCH worse. A Pac-10 loss early? A blowout loss to PSU? A tough loss at Utah? Who would have thought we would end up one win away from the Rose Rowl? That may have been our 1 in 10 years Rose Bowl shot.
Before you jump off a bridge, take a look at this quote:
“We went down early with that crazy, unbelievable crowd,” Pike said. “Oregon State is a great team – an obvious top-25 team. We were able to go through some tough times and come back out of them.” - Pike, 'Cats too much for OSU
The Future
What have we learned from the non-conference schedule? Here's what I've learned:
* The secondary is going to be OK. I like what I'm seeing. The coverage, generally, was good. Sometimes excellent. This isn't going to be 2005 where we were burned 1000 times on the long routes. And, yes, we do turn around and look at the ball.
* The defensive line is good at stopping the run with Paea up the middle, but will need help from blitzing LBs and corners to really pressure the QB. I thought Ben Terry would be a monster, but that hasn't panned out yet. We are going to miss Slade and Victor.
* The offensive line is a work in progress. We lost too many top OL over the last year to not struggle. We are young and have too many walk-ons/frosh to not have issues. I trust coach Cav to make them better. Hopefully fast.
* We may have a QB controversy soon. Even though we have two senior QBs, neither is the total package. But I think both can get the job done if the running game is solid.
* We have two great players in James and Jaquizz. You win by letting your best players make plays. You can't just start not handing the ball of to Quizz or throwing the ball to James because the fans think they get the ball too much. Trust me, we want them to have the ball in their hands. Hopefully someone else emerges (TE Halahuni, WR Bishop?) this season, but if not, they are what gives us a shot to be great. Deal with it.
* The WR core is young, and could be part of the problem with the sacks and passing game. Hard for me to say definitively. Clearly we miss Morales and Stroughter. But I've seen enough good play to be excited for the future.
I know one thing from past history of Mike Riley coached teams: they will improve. And adjust. The early season schedule could be better, but its not bad.
Sep 26: Arizona Oct 3: at Arizona St Oct 10: Stanford Oct 24: at USC Oct 31: UCLA
Arizona is winnable. Depending on improvement, Arizona St. is winnable (though we rarely win in Phoenix). Stanford is winnable. There is time to improve within that schedule.
Feedback
What do you see? Where are the Beavs as they head into the Pac-10 season?
How about voting on where you feel the Beavs will be at the end of the year? Is the sky falling for you?