Seems most people think that the Ducks are going to win the Civil War. Vegas has us as 10 point underdogs. Every local poll has the 60% of the people voting that the Ducks will win. Blah, blah, blah. Is Autzen really worth 10 points?
I was looking at the stats and things look pretty even to me. On offense, we each do things a little different, but the result is basically the same. Lots of yards and points.
Pac-10 Rankings: (From the Pac-10 Release)
OFFENSE
Rushing
OSU - 6th (149.7)
UO - 1st (231.4)
Passing
OSU - 1st (272.5)
UO - 9th (187.5)
Total
OSU - 2nd (422.2)
UO - 3rd (418.8)
Scoring
OSU - 3rd (32.4)
UO - 1st (37.7)
On defense things are surprisingly even as well. The pass defense for the Beavs is a bit scary, but it looks like the Beavs can run on Oregon. Its unlikely the Beavs will hold the Ducks under 100 yards rushing, but it does appear to be a strength again this year.
DEFENSE
Rushing
OSU - 1st (98.5)
UO - 5th (130.6)
Passing
OSU - 6th (242.1)
UO - 2nd (193.4)
Total
OSU - 5th (340.5)
UO - 3rd (324.0)
Scoring
OSU - 4th (22.2)
UO - 5th (22.7)
What will be the difference? Who knows, but the thing the Ducks have a clear advantage over the Beavs is creating turnovers and sacks. The Quacks have double in each of those categories (Sacks 30-15, Opp TOs 24-12). The good news for the Beavs is that the Ducks give the ball up a bunch more as well. In fact, its over twice as often (19-8).
The best hope for the Beavs is to capitalize on turnovers by the Ducks and force them into 3rd down situations (where they are only converting at 36%). Oh, and don't give up the big plays. Either that or just keep scoring all game long like Stanford did.
Come on Beavs! Early Christmas Present!